Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
